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Predicting the adoption of electronic health records by physicians: when will health care be paperless?

Authors

Ford, E. W., Menachemi, N., Phillips, M. T.

Journal

J Am Med Inform Assoc

Publication Date

2006 Jan-Feb

Volume

Issue

Pages

106-12

HIT Description: EHR More info...
Purpose of Study: estimate when EHR will be widely adopted
Years of study: Not Available
Study Design: predictive analysis
Outcomes: time to EHR adoption, estimates of EHR adoption by 2014

Summary:

Settings: physician groups in small practices
Intervention: adoption of EHR
Evaluation Method: predictive analysis using data from 6 prior studies of adoption, and framed using Rogers theory of diffusion of innovation, using the Bass Model
System Penetration: The model predicts that by 2014 about 62% of practices will have EHRs with a best estimate of 72% and a conservative estimate of 56%. Best estimate of the time until 90% of practices have EHRs is beyond 2020.
Extrinsic Factors in valuing cost and benefits: EHRs represent a disruptive change, cost subsidies in other countries identified as a factor facilitating adoption, but still are predeicted by the model to be less important than internal influence factors (such as social contagion or the tipping point).

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